CRACKS IN THE IRANIAN LEADERSHIP
Despite Iranian Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi’s words that
they never
said they would close the Hormoz Straight, Vice President
Mohammad
Reza Rahimi’s statement that they would thwart oil shipment
in the
Persian Gulf in case the scope of the sanctions imposed on
Iran
expanded due to the nuclear issue clearly demonstrates the
country’s
current state of chaos Such contradictory statements can
also be
observed between the IRGC and Iranian Foreign Ministry.
If there was consensus among the Iranian ruling elite, the
fact that
statements can be tough and sometimes can be compromising
could have
been taken as a tactic but this is not the case. Although
Iran’s
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamanei stands as the sole
power broker
there actually are numerous groups fighting against the
system. This
struggle has assumed a very tough nature before the upcoming
parliamentary elections to be held on March 2, 2012.
Contrary to the Supreme Leadership, Ahmadinejad who was once
backed by
Khamanei but now going his own way is trying to win the
middle class
by underscoring nationalism with praises of pre-Islam Iran.
The
Iranian President aspires to eliminate the religious
leadership and
establish an Islamic Republic that excludes the clergy. This
translates into war for Ayatollah supporters and moderate
conservatives.
The conflict among the Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad,
Revolutionary Guards Corps and Spiritual Leadership is
increasingly
growing. The deep cracks in the senior ranks manifest
themselves in
all the ranks of the state. The government has not been
interested in
the decisions taken by the parliament or judicial
authorities for a
long time. The army has also started to get involved in the
conflict.
The experts think that next elections are of historical
significance
that will determine the fate of Iran. The reformists that
are being
excluded by the ruling power and that declare that they will
not take
part in the elections prefer to wait for the result of the
power
struggle between the proponents of Ahmadinejad and the
conservative
circle. Whoever wins, Islamist circle will lose power.
The situation will also naturally affect Iran’s foreign
policy. If the
sanctions against Iran get further stricter, the radical
forces that
hope to stir the masses to action may lead to military
clashes that
may result in grave consequences.
