AFP:
“AMBIGUOUS TEHRAN REPLY COULD SPLIT WEST”
David
MILLIKIN
Despite the
reply of the Iranians on August 22 indicating that they are
ready for negotiations with the big powers regarding its
disputed nuclear programs, Washington seemed as intent as
ever on pressing for UN sanctions that might split the West.
This is the point emphasized by the commentators. It is
mentioned that yesterday Iran’s nuclear negotiator Ali
Larijani proposed “serious talks” with countries behind the
offer of suspending uranium enrichment activities in return
for economic cooperation.
Larijani,
who said “as of tomorrow, we are ready to start serious
talks with 5+1 (the PRC, USA, France, UK, the RF and Germany)”,
provided no other details. However, even before the full
content of the Iranian response was known, senior US
officials were reaffirming their position that only a total
cessation of Iran’s uranium enrichment by a UN Security
Council deadline of August 31 would avert sanctions. “We
will obviously study the Iranian response carefully, but we
are also prepared if it does not meet the terms set, to
proceed here in the Security Council … with economic
sanctions” said the US ambassador to the United Nations,
John Bolton. “I think we will be prepared to submit elements
of a resolution in the council very quickly” he said. Most
observers had expected Iran to reply in an ambiguous manner.
“The Iranians will likely agree to negotiations that may be
lead to at least a temporary suspension, but not agree to
this as a precondition” said Trita Parsi, an expert and
author of a book on the USA, Iran and Israel. “As
disappointing as this response may be for Washington, it
should not be seen as the end of the negotiation track,”
said Parsi. Parsi and other experts warned that a win by
proponents of immediate sanctions carried grave risks.
“Doing so would put the US on the slippery slope towards
military action because none of the America’s allies believe
that UN sanctions will be effective,” said Parsi.
James Marsh,
director of the Security Studies program at the
Massachusetts Institution of Technology, agreed and said a
US rush to impose sanctions could also split the fragile
alliance built up over the issue among the permanent UN
Security Council members. “You can tell by Iran’s comments
in advance of this response that they are seeking to divide
the Europeans and the Americans,” Marsh said. “Any
appearance on the part of Iran that it is willing to be
serious about negotiations will give the Chinese, the
Russians and to some extent the Europeans reason to want to
avoid escalating the political crisis, and that means at
this point voting for sanctions,” he said.
US
officials have been reluctant to spell out exactly what
sanctions Washington will seek at the UN if Iran fails to
meet the August 31 deadline. A senior State Department
official would only say it would be a “multi-stage process”
beginning with “targeted sanctions”. These are expected to
include relatively minor actions like bans on travel by and
contacts with the Iranian enterprises. But the UN has the
authority to impose more wide-ranging trade sanctions that
could have a significant impact on the Iranian economy. “The
Iranians have been preparing themselves for sanctions,
calculating that they won’t be very harsh and they will be
just as costly, if not more costly, to the Europeans,” Parsi
said. “Sooner or later the Europeans will break ranks,” he
said. (AFP- August 23, 2006)
