“KIRKUK… RUNNING TOWARDS THE CLIFF
RAPIDLY”
Akrem
Alfi/Ahmed al Mansuri
When you land at the airport in the city
of Irbil located in the north of Iraq and wander around
through its narrow roads, you could not realize at first
glance that you are in Iraq. In the region of Kurdistan, the
regional flag took the place of the national flag of Iraq.
In Kurdistan, not only destroyed buildings are not seen but
also new buildings symbolizing the on-going development
could be observed. However, it should not be forgotten that
this region is still a part of the Arabian world. When you
walk around on the streets of Kurdistan, you would think
that you are in heaven. However, the conflicts existing for
a century turned this heaven into “a delayed paradise”.
In fact, we made this trip to see what is
going on in the Iraqi Kurdistan. We are here in Kurdistan to
portray the most possible truth about this region whose name
is frequently declared in the newspapers and on the
televisions. The President of Iraq and the Kurdish leader
Jalal Talabani, in a statement he issued about the Kirkuk
file, declared that “One should be careful when they perform
an operation on an organ of the body; however we are talking
about Kirkuk, a brain surgery.”
After the interviews made with many
Arabian politicians and intellectuals, we came to a
conclusion that: “Kirkuk is running towards the cliff
rapidly.” “Kirkuk will be the focus of the news tomorrow.”
We would hear the name of Kirkuk in the following months
frequently depending on the fact that this city could not be
shared. On one hand, the Kurds asks for a referendum to be
held before the New Year in the city to annex the Kurdistan
region. On the other hand, Turkmen and Arabs are against a
referendum held on Kirkuk. Moreover, there exists a powerful
neighboring country like Turkey that is opposed to the
changes in its legal situation in Kirkuk. “Kirkuk… a new war
for oil.” Because of the fact that Kirkuk has 12% of the
Iraqi oil, the political conflicts in the region could turn
out to be a violent war. “Kirkuk… a new and difficult file.”
One should be very careful talking about the file of Kirkuk.
Every word uttered on this issue should be chosen very
carefully due to its sensitivity. Anyway, it is “a brain
surgery.”
The War in the Future
A youth called Salim, enumerated the
scenarios about the reasons for the beginning of the war as
follows: “The war could broke out when a Kurdish young man
makes a pass at a young Arabian or Turkmen girl, or when the
flag of the Iraq Kurdistan Region waved in a district mostly
settled down by the Turkmen, or when a conflict breaks out
between the Kurds, Turkmen and Arabs, or during or after the
referendum held for identifying the status of Kirkuk. The
city of Kirkuk which existed five thousand years ago is the
center of the tension experienced both in Iraq and in the
region now. Most probably this tension could be a “spark”
for a civil war or a new war that can break out in the
region at any moment. Depending on its strategic location,
Kirkuk staged so many wars throughout history. This city has
experienced demographic changes for many times till now. In
Kirkuk some dramatic changes have been experienced, since
there is oil in the city and because of the fact that
Turkmen had immigrated to this city in which the Kurds are
living. After the Baath Party came into the power, it has
begun to change the demographic structure of the city
depending on the conflict it is experiencing with the Kurds.
The Baath Party encouraged the Arab families to come to the
city of Kirkuk in accordance with its plan of change.
The Demographic War
According to the numbers presented by the
Kurdistan Regional Administration, 65% of the population in
Kirkuk was consisted by the Kurds in 1920s. The
administration stated that although this rate of the Kurdish
population decreased to 48% in 1950s and 37% in 1970s, the
rate of the Turkmen population increased to 16.3% in 1970s
while it was 4.8% in 1920s. The Kurdish administration noted
that the same fact is valid for the Arabs as well and that
the rate had increased from 20% to 44%. The Kurdish Regional
Administration pointed out that while there observed an
increase in the number of the Arabs and the Turkmen, there
experienced at least a 75% decrease in the number of
Assyrian, Syriac and Chaldean who constitutes 10% of the
Kirkuk population. The portrait of Kirkuk today is a secret
and it is unknown. Depending on the unofficial sources, it
is seen that Turkmen constitutes the majority, Arabs 35% and
the Kurds just 30% of the Kirkuk’s population. The Kurds,
who do not accept these numbers, claim that they constitute
at least 50% of the Kirkuk population and they present the
2005 elections as a proof for this. On the contrary, the
Turkmen and the Arabs said that the Arabs and the Turkmen
did not vote in the 2005 elections whereas the Kurds who did
not live in Kirkuk came to the city in the elections in
order to vote.
The population, which is covered by a
political and strict wrap and which is very problematic,
actually reflects the conflict between the ethnic groups in
the city, which could become violent in the future. All the
groups in Kirkuk declared that they are the holder of the
rights. The Kurds never leaves the idea that Kirkuk has been
a part of Kurdistan throughout history while the Turkmen
remains insisted in their rights on Kirkuk since they
constitutes the majority of the population there and Mosul
has been a Turkmen city throughout history. Besides this,
the Arabs observes that they come face to face with a strong
“demographic war” which is conducted by the Kurds who
endeavor to deport them and who have many supporters who
could be exploited to change the demographic structure of
Kirkuk. Even the Assyrians and Chaldeans claim rights for
the city because they have been living in these territories
for three thousand years before Arabs, Turkmen and Kurds.
The establishment of parties based on the
ethnical groups in all cities of Iraq, including Kirkuk
triggered this tension. In the statements of politicians it
can be clearly seen that they want to take the ethnical
groups to their side by using the incidents in the region.
Violent acts in Kirkuk have increased since the second half
of 2007. Kirkuk became the center of violence, explosion and
kidnap. What is more dangerous than the acts of terror in
Kirkuk is the internal tension. Kirkuk came to a point that
the ethnical groups in the city are waiting to light a fire
which will not go out easily. What will trigger this fire is
that the powerful states possess “the gas” in their hand.
Turkey considers Kirkuk as “a pearl” that
will complete “the necklace” of the state of Kirkuk. The
government of Ankara is in the opinion that while many Kurds
live in the Turkish territories it will be difficult to
silence the Kurds living in those territories and there will
be a chance for the Kurds to declare their independence
following the establishment of a Kurdish state. Turkey has
political, demographic and geographical extensions in Kirkuk.
At this stage the Turkish officials consider full derange of
Kirkuk from its orbit as a thin red line that should not be
crossed and their most important opportunity is “Turkmen”.
Turkey’s stance on Kirkuk is very clear. Turkish Prime
Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan states that a referendum
should not be held in Kirkuk before the control is gained
over Kirkuk. Syria explicitly states that they are against
the establishment of a new Kurdish state very close to them.
According to a Kurdish official Syria supports insurgent
Arabs and Islamic groups to prevent Kirkuk to be annexed to
the Kurdish region and let the city stay as a red-hot
cinder.
Are the Kurdish politicians lying?
A young named Mohammad talks in a loud
voice like he is in a meeting as, “We will take Kirkuk back
no matter how long it takes. We will establish our state
against all difficulties that will be raised.” All Kurds
speak in a loud voice like Mohammad. Their dream of
establishing a state is based clearly on “taking Kirkuk
back”. Some Kurds state that Kirkuk is the centerpiece of
the Kurdish state which will be established in the future.
In response the Kurdish politicians do not comment on this
logic and claim a different idea. Starting from the lowest
to the highest government officials in the Kurdish
administration you can often hear these words: “Kirkuk is a
city of Iraq but in the appearance of Kurdistan”. Dr.
Mohammad Ihsan who is the Minister of External Regions in
the Kurdish Government states as: “Kirkuk is an integral
part of Kurdistan. There are Arabs, Turkmen, Assyrians and
Chaldeans besides the Kurds in this city.” Other Kurdish
official states it is crystal clear from the 2005 elections
that Kirkuk is a Kurdish city. However Kirkuk is not only a
geographical extension of the Kurdistan region in the map
drawn only by the Kurds but also the main oil reserve. Oil
is the main code of the discussions on this region that can
not be shared by the Iraqis.
Mohammad Ihsan told in his brief
statement to Al Ittihad as: “We don’t care about the oil in
Kirkuk. The oil will be distributed according to the
relevant laws regarding this issue. Oil belongs to all
Iraqis.” This statement, which was reiterated twice by Ihsan,
was also reiterated by the deputy leader of the Kurdish
Regional Government Omar Fettah Hussein and some Kurdish
officials in a different way but in the same essence. After
our talks with the Kurdish officials we were not convinced
that the unique aim of the dream on the independence of
Kurdistan is not to possess the oil of Kirkuk. Now let’s get
back to the speech of Mohammad Ihsan as: “Iraqi oil belongs
to all Iraqis. The oil of Kirkuk belongs to all but we are
talking about a Kirkuk without oil”. Did he really mean what
he says or is it just a political statement for the press?
Hamid Mustafa, 34, who we came across on the streets of
Irbil while searching for an easier response to our question
continued as: “it is our national right to have a state of
our own like everyone else. Politicians hesitate to state
this because of their special interests but we cannot accept
anything less than a Kurdish state with the capital of
Kirkuk in the future.”
Many commentators state that a Kurdish
state can not be established without Kirkuk theoretically.
Not any state can be established without a strong economy.
At least it fulfills the condition of a strong economy
theoretically. It is understood that all methods show one
result which is an “explosion”. The only thing that will
prevent this explosion is wise, intelligent leaders with a
strategic vision. It is impossible to find the leaders
possessing those qualities in Iraq now.
Arabization and Kurdization
Due to the overthrow of the Baath regime
in April 2003 the power balance in northern Iraq has changed
dramatically. The two major Kurdish parties in Iraq;
Patriotic Union of Iraqi Kurdistan led by Jalal Talabani and
Democratic Party of Iraqi Kurdistan led by Masud Barzani,
considered the incidents in Iraq an opportunity to take
Kurdistan under their control and to take primarily Kirkuk,
which is considered as the “heart” of the region, and all
regions that are part of Kurdistan back. Due to their
positions in the transitional government Masud Barzani and
Jalal Talabani succeeded to pass the 58th article of the
Constitution. This article led to the return of the migrated
Kurds back to Kirkuk. Before the elections in 2005, in a
period when Arabs refused to vote in the elections, the
migrated Kurds were made to vote in order to seize Kirkuk.
Kurds managed to get 59 % of the votes in the parliamentary
elections for the constituency of Kirkuk. In other words,
while Kurds got 26 out of 41 chairs, Turkmen were able to
get 9 and Sunni Arabs 6 chairs. Thus, it became clear that
Kurdish leaders had the aim of seizing Kirkuk by remaining
in the political process in Iraq. Kurds included article
140, related with the status of Kirkuk, into the
constitution, which makes up the subject on which the Kurds
had been most successful from the political point of view.
Adnan Mufti, Speaker of the National
Assembly of Iraqi Kurdistan, spoke to the daily Al Ittihad:
“We accepted article 140 in order to give an end to the
intrigues about the Kurds. Those who oppose this article or
want it to be amended are malicious people”. In this
statement, Mufti referred to the Turkmen Front and those
Arabs in Iraq who oppose this article. Within the framework
of the efforts of the Kurds to annex Kirkuk to the
Kurdistan Region, those Kurds who had been forced to migrate
by the overthrown leader Saddam Hussein are made return
through the efforts sustained in the city “to make people
Kurdish” or, as Kurdish officials say, “to have
normalization”. Turkmen and Arabs said that Kurds were
settled in the villages through their money and with the
assistance of foreign governments. Turkmen and Arabs
expressed that the returning Kurds were placed in the
vicinity of the airport in Kirkuk and in the east of the
city.
According to unofficial sources,
approximately 300 thousand Kurds returned Kirkuk since 2003.
Kurdish officials reported that about 200 thousand Kurdish
families had been forced to migrate during the Saddam era
and there were still 80 thousand families waiting to return
Kirkuk. According to the Turkmen and Arabs, on the other
hand, the number of Kurdish families that had been forced to
migrate during the Saddam era does not exceed 10 thousand.
Arabs and Turkmen accused Kurds of seizing the significant
positions in Kirkuk and facilitating the arrival of Kurds in
this city. Various Iraqi Arab officials expressed that Kurds
took their supporters to Kirkuk with a view to have the
referendum, which will determine the status of Kirkuk,
result in their favor. If the referendum, scheduled for late
2007 in Kirkuk, results in Kurds’ favor, this means they
will get stronger in the region in political, economic and
geographic terms. Thus, in order to achieve this aim, it is
needed to take Kurds to Kirkuk and make some progress on the
way to change the demography of the city.
Strategic Position
Kirkuk has a strategic position. Kirkuk
is the city which links Suleymaniyah, Irbil and Baghdad to
one another. Also the main roads linking the regional
provinces of Kurdistan join in Kirkuk. The Kurdistan
Regional Government gets the main three contact points by
seizing Kirkuk. One of these contact points opens to
Baghdad, the second one to Iran and the third one to Syria.
Small Iraq
It is estimated that Kirkuk’s population
is about 1.5 million. Almost 800 thousand people are living
only in the center of Kirkuk. Turkmen started to migrate to
Kirkuk in the twenties with the discovery of oil. Arabs,
Turkmen, Kurds, Chaldeans, Yazidis and Assyrians have been
living for centuries along the border region which separates
the Iraqi Kurdistan Region from the other provinces of Iraq.
This region, which is considered as a small Iraq consisting
of Arabs, Sunnis, Shiites, Yazidis and Christians, in fact
represents the “Mosaic” of great Iraq.
Password… Oil
There are six oil beds in Kirkuk. This
involves the oil bed which is considered the greatest oil
bed of Iraq. This bed has 12 % of the Iraqi oil reserves,
i.e. there are 13.5 billions of barrels of oil. On the other
hand, the oil in the Kurdistan Region makes up only the
three percent of the Iraqi oil reserves. The oil in the oil
beds in Kirkuk is known by its abundance and quality.
(United Arab Emirates / daily Al Ittihad – November 5, 2007)
