A
PANORAMA OF THE MIDDLE EAST
In the
Middle East, where the tension have not decreased since The
USA’s occupation of Iraq in 2003, the problem between the
USA and Iran keeps growing. The quality of the problem
started to create a vacuum involving other countries of the
region. On the other hand, one more country took a decision
to withdraw from Iraq. The decision taken by the UK, the
strongest ally of the USA in Iraq, caused a great
repercussion. There is an intense diplomacy traffic in the
region.
Here is a
panorama of the Middle East with the recent developments…
The most
significant problem in the Middle East in recent days is the
tension between the USA and Iran. The problem that began
with Iran’s aspiration to be a “nuclear power” has reached
very distinct dimensions today. Iran and the USA come face
to face with each other in almost each country of the
region. It is this tension that lies behind the government
crisis in Lebanon (despite an agreement reached in order to
put an end to armed clashes, to restore security atmosphere
and to meet the expectations of Palestinian people on
February 8th 2007 after a long bargaining lasting two days
with the mediation King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia), the clash
between Hamas and al-Fatah in the Palestinian territories,
and activities of Muqteda Al-Sadr and certain Shite groups
in Iraq. However, we observe that the tension between the
USA and Iran has intensified lately. The deadline determined
by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) for Iran’s
cessation of uranium enrichment activity expired on February
21st 2007. Also, in the report on Iran presented by the
International Atomic Energy Agency (UAEA) Director Mohamed
Al-Baradei, the message was that ‘this country is not
cooperating with the international society’. All these
facilitate continuation of the USA’s tough stance towards
Iran.
In this
respect it may be expected that a new resolution for
sanctions on Iran might be taken by the UNSC. It will not be
a surprise if that resolution includes a much more extensive
sanction covering not only nuclear materials, unlike the
previous one. Because, important changes are perceived in
the stances of Russia and China which were known as the most
significant obstacles before such resolution in the past.
However, from a broad perspective, adoption of such a
resolution will push a lot of countries, primarily Iran,
into a difficult position. At the same time, rumors began to
be spread rapidly that the USA increased its military
strength in the Persian Gulf and that this could be used in
a potential attack against Iran. Therefore, certain Gulf
countries such as Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and Oman are in
intense contacts with the USA. In brief, although there is
not a war situation yet, it may be seen easily that
expectations for a war in the region strengthened.
While the
tension in the USA-Iran relations persists, the situation in
Iraq does not improve as well. The Operation Baghdad was
initiated in line with the ‘new plan’ of the President Bush
and his counselors who carry out a war that they could not
win but also cannot afford losing. Within the framework of
this Operation, lots of Iraqis are losing their lives… But,
despite “measures taken’, no decrease is observed in
violence/terror acts. The US President is sending
‘additional troops’ to Iraq with a helpless effort so as to
make out a situation that it can name as ‘victory’ out of
their defeat. If this does not work, “ungrateful and
incompetent Iraqis will be blamed and the Americans will
leave them to wage war with their own bloody methods for a
solution”.
In addition
to these, British Prime Minister Tony Blair’s announcement
of a decision that troops would be withdrawn from Iraq,
raised more difficulties for the USA. Being the second to
deploy the most troops in Iraq after the USA, the UK has
been suffering from internal pressures for a while.
Representatives of both the opposition and the ruling party,
as well as the British people, are against deployment of
troops in Iraq. As can be seen most clearly in the report
prepared by the ‘Crisis Action’ which gathers a group of
non-governmental organizations, think-tanks and labor
unions, British public opinion suggest that Britain should
build confidence between the Americans and Iranians. The
report put the full stop on the issue with the following
statements: “Surely, the government will tell us that it is
talking with the USA and that we should not ask so much
questions. But we know from painful experiences, in such
situations the UK has no influence on the USA. We should
look elsewhere for real hope. Meanwhile we should care for
ourselves. The war in Iraq gave harm to the UK’s interests
and to our relations with the Muslims in our country. If we
get involved in a US attack against Iran the damage will be
much greater. The government should tell that we will not
support such attack. Some will describe it as a concession,
but the duty of the government is to define the British
interests and to defend them. It is out of fashion to
mention the US leadership. We bear no obligation to follow a
leader who insistently move ahead in the wrong direction.”
Consequently, being completely cornered in internal
politics, Blair had no alternative other than “announcing
withdrawal of troops”. of British troops’ withdrawal from
Iraq will primarily have a psychological effect on the USA.
The most significant result of this event for the future may
be a follow-up to the UK by other countries and the USA’s
remaining alone in Iraq.
Saudi
Arabia has demonstrated that it is a candidate for being the
leader of the region by gathering Iraqi groups together, by
convening Palestinian groups in Mecca and due to its
effective stance concerning Lebanon’s politics, and this
country is considered to be a party to the much disputed
Sunnite-Shiite conflict in the region. But Arab world is
divided on the subject of how they will cope with sudden
increase of Iranian power. The tension is at the utmost
level particularly in Saudi Arabia. Riyadh is warning the
USA against the dangers of a potential collapse in Iraq and
find itself in an unequal confrontation with Iran. Some
Royal members maintain that Saudi Arabia should fight with
Iran, stand up for interests of Sunni Arabs and get hold of
the regional power. Other Saudis tell that fighting will
have no use other than spreading the war and they call for
dialogue and reconciliation. From this perspective, it can
easily be seen that it is not Iran but the USA that creates
existing problems in the region.
