A RADICAL
CHANGE IN US APPROACH TOWARDS IRAN
By Mazin
Hammad
The
intelligence estimate on Iran’s nuclear program opted out
the possibility of a war to be waged by Bush.
Notwithstanding the consent of the falcons in Israel and
America, a positive dialog will eventually emerge between
Iran and USA.
The Israeli
leaders were previously notified of the US intelligence
estimate confirming that Iran halted its nuclear weapon
program in 2003 fall. Despite that, the estimate shocked and
frustrated the Israeli army.
Extreme
rightist Deputy Prime Minister Lieberman says Israel must
better be ready to launch a military operation should the
sanctions imposed upon Iran do not work while Deputy
Minister of Defense Vilnai points out that the government
would not opt out any options.
But what
could convince Israel? The Israeli experts express that the
intelligence estimate rendered a US military operation
against Iran less likely, though not impossible and stress
that Israel could not undertake the operation itself, at
least not for the time being. The Israeli falcons, however,
opt for the military option to remain on the agenda.
Israel will
need US approval for the attack it intends to launch against
Iran and in case of a decision to attack, it will require
special US codes which will allow Israeli planes to enter
Iran’s air zone. One remembers when Washington denied Israel
the codes allowing Israel to enter Iraqi air zone after
Saddam launched a missile to Tel Aviv during the Gulf War.
This left behind a vengeful Israel.
Bolton, the
former US permanent representative to UN, by blaming those
who compiled the estimate of not being expert and bearing
hostility towards President Bush, agreed with Israel’s
Minister of Defense who had skeptical thoughts about the
estimate. The main editorial in Israel’s Haaretz daily two
days ago was also interesting. The newspaper said Israel
should not adopt the same standpoint on Iran’s nuclear
weapons as the other countries because, the article
continued, Iran’s President Ahmedinejad did not say that his
country would recognize the Hebrew state if Israel
peacefully settled with Palestine and therefore, Israel
cannot possibly trust Iran so long as the present regime
rules the country. Haaretz’s assessment fits into the
analysis of US Vice-President Cheney. Cheney previously
expressed that just to have enriched uranium still would
empower Iran with the prospect of making a choice between
the peaceful nuclear energy and hostile nuclear power. Yet,
official US stance towards Iran is changing after the
intelligence estimates and the retreat of conservatives like
former Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld, former Deputy
Secretary of Defense Wolfowitz, Bolton and former
Undersecretary of Defense Feith from the administration. As
also noted by Joseph Cirincione, the author of “Fear of
Bomb: A History and Future of Nuclear Weapons”, the
intelligence estimate helped transfer the foreign policy to
the sane back again.
Nevertheless, some Israeli experts claim that Tehran would
respond back to the strict sanctions to be imposed by the UN
Security Council and therefore, it would not be wise for
Israel to launch an operation against Iran on its own. Given
these conditions, it is obvious that Bush has lost his
military trump card against Iran and will not be able to
activate this option. On the other hand, Israel no longer
has its strategy to leave the nuclear matter to US and now,
it is left with two options both of which will bring harsh
consequences. The first one is to attack Iran on its own
which is not likely without America. And the second is to
resist international sanctions and pressure; the
intelligence estimate had lessened the effect of the
pressure. At this point, one could only reach the following
assumption: The mentioned estimate will in time drive US and
Iran into the path of a serious and positive dialog on the
nuclear program. The dialog will not focus only on nuclear
issue but also help remove several hostilities in the
region, particularly those concerning the situation in Iraq
and Afghanistan. Such a dialog will also have a positive
impact on the peace process in the Middle East.
