THE
CONSEQUENCES OF THE STRATEGIC COOPERATION BETWEEN RUSSIA AND
IRAN
The rivalry
that the Western world and Russia has entered in an attempt
to seize the areas of influence in the strategic regions and
a following crisis broke out in the Caucasus, brings the
possibility of a revival of the Cold War to the minds of
political commentators. Although the statesmen of the
neighboring countries and that of the countries regarded as
parts in the Caucasus crisis consider “the possibility of an
emergence of a new cold war” as weak, the political
commentators following the developments closely claim that
“a new polarization is not so far away”. One of these
political commentators is Rajab Safarov who is the director
of “the Iranian Research Center ” in Russia .
Rajab
Safarov, whose article has been published after the
escalation of the crisis between the West and Russia and the
emergence of the possibility of Georgia ’s NATO membership,
has made some proposals to Kremlin, alleging that “the
establishment of a strategic cooperation pact between Iran
and Russia is soon”.
According
to Safarov , Russia should enter into a strategic
cooperation with the anti-American countries such as Iran
and Syria and establish bases for itself in these countries.
These bases, which would be obtained within the framework of
military agreements to be made, have to be “used against
NATO countries”. According to Safarov , Russia has to grant
two privileges to Iran and in turn take some. According to
this, Russia would back Iran up against a possible military
attack coming from the USA and the West, and continue to
equip Iran ’s nuclear program as well. In return for this,
Iran would monitor the military activities in Azerbaijan
region carried out by the Western countries against Russia
and allow the establishment of a major base to monitor the
developments in Turkey , Azerbaijan and Georgia . At the
same time Russia would make his dream of “dominating the
warm seas” come true, by keeping the actions of the US Navy
under control with the help of another base to be
established on the Ghashm Island in the Persian Gulf .
Iran ’s
response to the proposals of the statesmen is not clear yet.
By the way, how compatible the strategic cooperation between
Iran and Russia with the historical and geopolitical
realities is, is an issue that has to be reviewed. Moreover,
why do Russians need such political analysis and proposals
in such a sensitive period?..
A major
political transformation began after 1980. Also today, “new
steps are being taken towards making the national and
international borders closer” with an incredible impetus. In
the globalized world, there is a terrible decrease in the
power settings of the states compared with the Cold War
years. The power is now being shared between “various
international players, international institutions, economic
institutions and wealthy companies”. Even the ideological
view of Communism has accepted the defeat in the face of
liberalism. And even Russia has acknowledged that free
economy and liberalism are indispensable realities. China is
the finest example to the transition from Communism to
Liberalism with a harsh curve. China has completely
surrendered to the liberal model in economic grounds, even
though it more or less preserves its political and social
structure. For these reasons, talking now about the
ideological borders in the world and the revival of the Cold
War will be a big lie. Sensitivity towards the all kinds of
development in our time became very touchy. The whole world,
primarily the regional countries, pays for the cost of the
political and economical crisis experienced in any country.
In order to
evaluate the assessments of the Cold War, it is necessary to
take the opinions of the new shareholders of Russia . Are
these new cartel owners going to say yes to a Cold War
environment? Certainly, Kremlin which cannot have a voice in
the area of policy as in the old times, are inevitably going
to be under the influence of Russian businessmen having
close relations with the West and the industrial experts.
The revival
of the Cold War appears to be “a distant possibility”.
However, it will be a great mistake for the political
circles, statesmen and decision makers to turn towards a
strategic agreement as mentioned above. The establishment of
a military base in a foreign country in return for Russia ’s
support for Iran is inconvenient for some reasons:
1. As it is mentioned above, a Cold War is not going to be
experienced once more as it happened in the last century.
This is why an agreement to be made with Russia will be to
the detriment of Iran . Because through this game, Russians
are going to take a step towards the short, medium and long
term interest plans in the Azerbaijan region and the Gulf,
through which Iran will be deprived of the capital and
technology of the West.
2. When we look at the historical progress of the relations
between Russia and Iran , there is a reality which should
not to be overlooked. For several years Russia has been of
the opinion to separate Iran . A Russian base to be
established in Iran will increase the mentioned threat.
3. Russia’s proposal for “security umbrella” to Iran
looks like a two-sided sword. This situation will increase
the possibility of a nuclear attempt to be made against Iran
.
4. The deepening of the Russian-Iranian relations makes
Iran become one of the satellites of Russia . This also
leads to an imbalance in the country’s relations with its
the pro-Western neighbors or with the Western countries.
