WHY DOES
TALABANI TAKE AFTER SADDAM?
The
expected meeting between Iran and USA which initially had
been scheduled for 18 December was postponed to another
date. Then rumors popped up implying that the meeting would
not be held at all. The statements by Iraqi President Jalal
Talabani following the postponement of the event and turning
into an ambiguous future occasion, mounted tension between
Iran and Iraq. Talabani, out of nowhere, declared that the
agreement signed in 1975 that sets the River Arvand as the
border line between Iran and Iraq is void.
In his
statement of 24 December, Talabani said the mentioned
agreement was signed during the rule of Shah and Saddam
which now made it null and void as both regimes had by now
collapsed. As known, the Agreement of Algeria was signed in
the capital city of Algeria in 1975 in the aftermath of
intensive conflicts between Iraq and Iran, high tension at
the borders and casualties by both sides.
According
to the Agreement of Algeria which brought a solution to the
Shatt Al-Arab matter, Iran was required to discontinue
supporting the Kurds whereas Iraq was to expel Ayatollah
Khomeini. The Agreement of Algeria signed by Saddam Hussein
in the capacity of deputy-president entailed that half of
the Gulf was to be owned by Iran whereas the other would
belong to Iraq. The Shatt Al Arab waterway, which is
comprised of the merged Rivers of Tigris and Euphrates,
makes up the Iraq’s southern border with Iran. Shatt Al
Arab is the only point where Iraq can open up to
Persian Gulf. The right to sovereignty over Shatt Al Arab,
an approximately 200-km. channel formed at the point where
Rivers Tigris and Euphrates unite, was one of the reasons
that triggered the Iran-Iraq war. At that time, Iran
supported the Kurds led by Barzani and thus obliged Saddam
to recognize the sovereignty of Iran over River Arvand. The
Iraqi Baathist Regime considered the signing of this
agreement as an insult, made wise use of the Iranian
Revolution 1979 and Saddam tore this agreement document into
pieces on a TV programme a couple of days before his
intervention into Iran. After the 8-year futile Iraq-Iran
War which started on 22 September 1980 and brought no good
upon either of the countries, Saddam recognized Iran’s
border rights and wrote a letter to Rafsanjani, the then
president of Iran, where he acknowledged the validity of the
Agreement of Algeria signed in 1975.
By almost
following the footsteps of Saddam, which balances of the
region does Talabani want to shake today? To whom would such
declarations and claims of Talabani delivered at such a
sensitive time serve?
To whose
interests would this abrupt move serve? A move which reminds
of the tragedy which lasted eight years, killed hundreds of
thousands of people, devastated Iraq, set the ground to
later commit all kinds of humanity crimes including chemical
massacres… A tragedy launched by the USA using Saddam
Hussain as a tool to crush Iranian Revolution, financed by
Saudi Arabia and Gulf countries and ended with the execution
of Saddam and occupation of the country…
Should this
agreement is considered void, this will mean that another
front of conflict will be opened only to be added to the
already existing problem of Greater Tonb, Lesser Tonb and
Abumusa Islands among Gulf Arabs as well as the Strait of
Hormoz.
The main
reason of such a war is indeed more complicated than it
looks. First of all, it is again all about sovereignty which
triggered the Iraq’s occupation of Kuwait, a consequence of
British policy towards Basra. Kuwait was occupied because
Iraq had blocked its way out to the Persian Gulf. The
grounds for the Agreement of Algeria is, however, more
complicated and might better help in shedding light upon
what happens today. Why did Saddam sign this agreement in
the first place and tore it apart later?
Here is
why:
Israel,
while battling against the armies of Egypt, Syria and Jordan
at the same time during the Arab-Israel War in 1967,
together with the Iran’s Shah, began to provide military
support to the Kurds of northern Iraq. Heavy weapons brought
from Israel to Iran were transported to northern Iraq by
land while Israeli intelligence agents and officers were
transferred to the region through the same route and trained
the Kurdish troops. The Israeli officers commanding the
troops of Barzani launched severe attacks against Baghdad.
Approximately one hundred Israeli officers operating in the
region decided on war tactics while at the same time they
directly commanded the war. They picked up those they
assessed as talented and sent them to Israel for military
training.
But why did
Israel, already squeezed amidst such a huge war, do that?
The motivation was of course not Israel’s affection towards
Kurds. The main target was Baghdad…More accurately; Israel
indeed sought to prevent the Kurdish troops to join the
United Arab army fighting against Israel. And as a matter of
fact, it did achieve! Iraqi army managed to provide only a
very limited support to United Arab armies. It had to pile
up all its forces in northern Iraq. A total of ten thousand
Iraqi soldiers died in this war. Israel accomplished its
goal. Iran’s Shah himself started the discussion on
partitioning Iraq right at the same time.
Baghdad
accepted to compromise with Tehran so as to block Iran’s
support and, indirectly Israel’s backing to northern Iraq.
Iraq acknowledged Iran’s claims on Shatt Al Arab waterway.
Iran had to discontinue supporting Kurds in return. Israel
had thus reached its aim. So had Iran. Eventually, support
pouring into northern Iraq either stopped or decreased.
Iranian revolution proved to be a significant move in
breaking the US influence in the region. The revolution
totally disrupted all balances of the region. The US-Iranian
alliance collapsed. Saddam Hussein’s only reason to attack
Iran was not the conflicts among two countries. It was also
a part of US desire to punish Iran and regain control in the
region. Accordingly, Saddam was cocked and fired. A bloody
war took place with the financial support of Sunnite
countries and the military and political support of America.
The plan was to hammer down the revolution right when it
started. Yet the complete contrary happened. With the
Iraq-Iran War, the subsequent Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, the
First Gulf War and the occupation today, Iraq committed
suicide. Actually, it was pushed to commit suicide.
Another
reason why Jalal Talabani made these statements almost as a
copycat of Saddam might also be an attempt to draw all the
attention as the first non-Arab president to rule Iraq. At
this point, everything apparently depends on the Iraqi
government. It seems that everyone is ready to forget about
this adventure if the Iraqi leadership quits discussing the
Agreement of Algeria. Nonetheless, their confirmation of the
invalidity of the agreement will mark the start of a new
tension between the two countries and within the region
where, in this case, one would reasonably expect a political
strife among the countries.
The
observers remind that the bloody Iraq-Iran War, started in
1980 and led hundreds of thousands of people to die and
millions more to emigrate, broke up for no apparent reason
and evaluate this recent move by Talabani as a new phase in
USA’s nuclear pressure strategy upon Iran. Underlining that
the statements by Talabani who attributes considerable
importance at improving the relations with Iran after Saddam
Hussein was toppled, had an interesting tinge, the observers
note that Talabani might have made this unexpected statement
under the pressure of USA which, after the latest
intelligence estimate, had to opt out the military operation
towards Iran. The evaluations indicate that US, instead of
directly attacking Iran, seeks to justify the operation by
creating a de facto situation. The estimate by 16
intelligence organizations had an enormous negative impact
on George Bush administration. Thus, US opted out the
military option including military intervention in Iran. The
world has now acknowledged Iran’s arguments and Tehran,
thus, won the nuclear struggle. The same estimate led to
panic in Israel and the region witnessed the start of a new
game with Talabani being the leading star.
